220. Indigenous peoples, for example, are not opposed to progress, yet theirs is a different notion of progress, often more humanistic than the modern culture of developed peoples. Theirs is not a culture meant to benefit the powerful, those driven to create for themselves a kind of earthly paradise. Intolerance and lack of respect for indigenous popular cultures is a form of violence grounded in a cold and judgmental way of viewing them. No authentic, profound and enduring change is possible unless it starts from the different cultures, particularly those of the poor. A cultural covenant eschews a monolithic understanding of the identity of a particular place; it entails respect for diversity by offering opportunities for advancement and social integration to all.
A particular scientific implication of the definitional issues relating to environmental migration is the capacity to measure and predict flows of environmental migrants (per IOM definition). Data and empirical studies on environmental migration differ based on the criteria used to identify population movements as voluntary versus forced and environmentally or otherwise motivated.
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While for foreign-born populations, there is readily available data, studies challenge this operationalisation of migration, as it fails to capture when people moved and from where. Abel and Sander (2014), for instance, estimate the volume of migration flows and direction since 1990, finding that while the stock of foreign-born populations globally has increased, there has not been a drastic increase in the flow of migrants in recent years, relative to the global population size or in absolute quantities. These differences in measurement paint very different pictures regarding contemporary global migration, with popular narratives often following UN data, shown in Fig. 10.3, indicating massive increases in migrants.
Determining the proportion of international migrants who relocate due to environmental changes faces the same challenges as estimating migrant flows, with the additional challenges of parsing environmental motivators from economic, social, and political factors, which influence migration decisions in tandem (Black et al. 2011). Due to this complexity, as well as uncertainty in predicting future adaptive capacity, predictions of future movements of people from climate change and environmental causes vary from 25 million to 1 billion in 2050 (IOM 2017b).
In addition to international movement, populations move internally in massive numbers in the face of environmental factors, including those affected by climate change, such as natural disasters, environmental degradation, droughts, and floods. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre estimates the number of new internal displacements per year at values far above those estimates of international migration flows calculated by Abel and Sander (2014). As shown in Fig. 10.4, the number of internal displacements in 2016 was over 30 million. Of those displaced in 2016, nearly 25 million were displaced by natural disasters, with large volumes of displacements occurring in Asia, particularly China, India, and Pakistan, illustrated in Fig. 10.5 (IDMC 2017).
In addition to the flows of voluntary migrants internally and internationally, mass events, such as natural disasters, can abruptly displace those living in a space, often en masse. When such large and sudden displacements occur, governments face logistical and political challenges in managing the flow of people internally and across international borders. In this process, the displaced can seek asylum, often settling temporarily in refugee camps, beginning a prolonged, indefinite state of transience.
The risks associated with climate change vary greatly between different geographic locations and different social structures (IPCC 2014). Correspondingly, the mechanisms by which climate change can influence the flow of people also vary widely from place to place, with corresponding sets of losses and damages faced by the affected populations at the time of departure as well as in the process of resettlement. In this section, we detail a selection of cases in which the environment plays a role in the displacement of a population, including sea-level rise, cyclonic storms, and desertification, as well as the role of deforestation as a driver of both climate change and migration. We outline examples of each, highlighting the complex set of losses and damages incurred by populations in each case.
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